The Fantasy Football Fallacy: Why Quarterback Rankings Are All About Upside

The annual ritual of fantasy football quarterback rankings has begun, and with it, the predictable chatter about “dual-threat” players and their supposed advantages over traditional pocket passers. This year’s crop of top-ranked quarterbacks boasts an impressive array of mobile signal-callers, each touted for their ability to rack up rushing yards and touchdowns.

At first glance, the data appears to support this narrative. Last season, four of the top five fantasy QBs – Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Drake Maye – contributed significantly with their legs, combining for 14 rushing scores among them. Meanwhile, quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott, who rely more heavily on their arms, finished as mid-tier options.

However, a closer examination of these rankings reveals a more nuanced reality. The emphasis on rushing upside is often overplayed, particularly when it comes to quarterbacks like Allen and Maye. While it’s true that these players can be game-changers with their legs, their fantasy value also stems from their ability to throw accurately and consistently.

Josh Allen, for instance, accumulated 14 rushing touchdowns last season. However, his opportunities were largely a product of the Bills’ offense, which frequently funnels him into short-yardage situations where he can exploit defenses with his athleticism. Meanwhile, Allen’s passing numbers – 21.4 fantasy points per game in 2023 – were among the highest in the league.

Drake Maye’s rushing totals were inflated by New England’s aggressive play-calling and a schedule that pitted him against weaker defensive units. As impressive as Maye’s dual-threat ability is, his fantasy value remains largely dependent on his arm talent and the Patriots’ high-powered offense.

The Pocket Passer Paradox

Some might argue that traditional pocket passers like Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott are just boring, run-of-the-mill options who can’t compete with the athleticism of their mobile counterparts. However, this isn’t necessarily true. While it’s true that these quarterbacks don’t offer the same level of rushing upside as Allen or Maye, they possess a different kind of advantage: consistency.

They’re more likely to produce high-end fantasy numbers on a weekly basis due to their ability to throw accurately and consistently from the pocket. Dak Prescott’s 18.1 fantasy points per game last season were among the highest in the league, even if his rushing totals were relatively modest. Similarly, Matthew Stafford’s lack of rushing yards didn’t hold him back from finishing as a top-tier option – he threw for over 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns.

The Real Advantage: Coaching and System

When evaluating quarterback rankings, it’s essential to consider the systems in place around them. A quarterback’s value is often tied directly to their coach’s ability to create an offense that plays to their strengths. For example, Joe Burrow’s success with the Bengals can be attributed in part to his relationship with coordinator Brian Callahan, who has a proven track record of creating explosive passing games.

Similarly, Lamar Jackson’s resurgence last season was largely due to the influence of new playcaller Declan Doyle, who helped him find a rhythm in the pass game. This suggests that we’re focusing too much on individual player traits and not enough on the coaches and systems that enable them to succeed.